Economy

11 April 2018

Monthly Economic Update

Every month, our economists study the macroeconomic situation. They analyse the events that have had an impact in recent months, and discuss possible consequences.

Key points to remember
Trade, Tech & Trump

Evidence of a broadening and more global growth story is increasingly powerful. The US looks set to hit 3% growth this year, and the European and Japanese figures are looking more robust. Emerging markets are also strengthening, with Latin America finally joining the party after recent struggles. The consensus forecasts are rising too, but we believe that they are still too pessimistic. Rising asset valuations a potential threat, but with growth looking so strong and so much cash on the sidelines, any near-term correction is likely to be shallow.

What should you remember?
  • In the USA, fiscal reform optimism has been replaced by fears of a return of protectionism.
  • Although confidence is waning, short-term outlook remains positive in the Eurozone.
  • Low volatility on stock markets seems behind us.

Read the whole study here (PDF).

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