14 August 2017
Monthly Economic Update
Every month, our economists study the macroeconomic situation. They analyse the events that have had an impact in recent months, and discuss possible consequences.
Key points to remember
A question of leadership
The travails of President Trump’s healthcare and tax reforms together with Brexit and the risks for the UK economy are well recognised, but there appears to be political trouble brewing elsewhere. President Abe is looking increasingly vulnerable in Japan while upcoming elections in Europe and a potential Catalonia independence referendum could add to the uncertainty for financial markets. This puts more focus on the likely central bank reaction with the upcoming Jackson Hole central bank conference potentially providing a more dovish spin on the path of policy.
What should you remember?
- In the US, tax reform seems to be the priority, but raising the debt ceiling to prevent a government shutdown will be the first task after the summer.
- The old continent is on a 2% growth path, but political uncertainty could return after the summer.
- The EUR/USD moved above 1.15 driven by sentiment and low market liquidity.
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