Every month, our economists study the macroeconomic situation. They analyse the events that have had an impact in recent months, and discuss possible consequences.
Just when things were looking up…
Just as pockets of optimism had begun to emerge in the global economy, trade tensions are back. President Trump has taken the trade war a step further with the imposition of fresh tariffs on China, which also raises questions about the possibility of auto tariffs. We still think a US-China deal remains likely, not least because President Trump will not want a damaged economy and stock market as he heads into a key election year. But in the meantime, trade uncertainty, as well as risks relating to forthcoming European elections and Brexit, suggest that financial market caution is likely to stay with us for a little while longer.
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