2 February 2021

Monthly Economic Update

Every month, our economists study the macroeconomic situation. They analyse the events that have had an impact in recent weeks, and discuss possible consequences.

Hopes fade for a synchronised global recovery

Better times are coming, though hopes of a synchronised global recovery are fading. That's the main thrust of our comprehensive Monthly Economic Update. We explain what this means for economies and markets around the world.

US: Waiting for lift-off

The economy will likely continue struggling for the next month or two, but with vaccinations accelerating and households looking cash rich, a reopening of the economy could see growth reach multi-decade high.

Eurozone: A delayed recovery

With more stringent lockdowns in the offing and a still underwhelming vaccination campaign, the eurozone economy is likely to shrink again in 1Q. A recovery can still be expected from 2Q, though some headwinds remain. Inflation is likely to be temporarily higher. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank seems to be moving towards yield curve control.

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